Comment and Rumour about Local Politics Grimsby Labour Party |
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"Perceptions" play a large part in politics. There has been a dramatic change from a year ago. This is not to say that perceptions are necessarily wrong, but they tend to exaggerate changes in public opinion. That matters. Successful politicians have to be expert in shaping "perceptions". Blair was a natural. Brown finds it difficult. There is still time for Labour to reverse the process; but don't hold your breath! The best way to get the petrol and diesel prices down is to reduce the amount being used. This is already happening in the US and elsewhere in the world. The probability is that prices will ease back this autumn. As a matter of interest Iran has more oil than it can sell, as the oil is not the type mainly required at the moment. Refining capacity is apparently the main factor in limiting world supplies of petrol and diesel. The government can do little directly to help, apart from taking a lead in trying to reduce consumption. Allowing for inflation, the fuel tax is lower than it was in 2000. There does seem to be a "bubble" element in the oil price rise, and there is a good prospect that this autumn will see a fallback in price, perhaps by something of the order of 20/25%. Longer term we want fuel consumption to fall, for climate change reasons, but not at the expense of economic disruption. The main aim of the Council's proposed new policy is explicitly to save money. Educational needs appear to be of secondary importance. Means testing is to play an essential part. No wonder the policy is expected to be controversial !!
The Generalist Party has a very presentable website, and it is a plus that those involved are young. The more discussion and thinking about council (and other) political affairs the better. Let us hope they persist and develop their project. It has given rise to a rather silly dispute between the cabinet and Shona McIsaac. She had said that the Government had provided £1,600,000 additional funding for it. The cabinet agreed to write to her to point out that this money was now part of the general purpose grant and was not specific to the concessionary fares scheme. In other words the money was not (in the jargon) ring-fenced. Why the quibble? We note that the Conservative candidate for Cleethorpes is also on the cabinet. The cabinet, with a council leader, should provide a more coherent and clear set of priorities for the council. The danger is that this advantage may be limited if, as is the case here, one party does not have an absolute majority. There could be unsatisfactory compromises, and inevitably a council leader has to ensure he maintains strong political support. The cabinet structure in local government is now fairly well established, but there remain a number of unanswered questions about its successes and failures in practice. Most of us are worse off because of some sharply rising prices. This has been true for some time, and is also shown up in the opinion polls. From a labour supporters point of view, the government could have taken a more clear lead to deal with the problem. Not that there is any easy answer. Apart from the need for more fairness towards the less well off, why cannot the government take a lead to partially offset the commodity's bubble by, for example, reducing the government's energy consumption?
In elections it tends to feature as opposition to an unpopular idea for, say, collecting rubbish fortnightly instead of weekly. That particular policy has been ruled out locally. But what can be done to reduce the amount going into landfill, to improve recycling, and generally deal with our waste more intelligently? The Council issued a consultation document, Municipal Waste Management Strategy, last February, and the consultation period is coming to an end, though there is still time to submit comments. In the Labour Party locally it is felt that their campaign to get the free bus pass reestablished was lost in the national issue of the 10pc tax rate arguments. To many people this must have seemed more important. However, it would be unusual for particular subjects to swing an election on their own. The reasons for Labour's losses were more complicated.
A comparison with four years ago is of little help, as there was an absence then in all wards of either a Lib/Dem or Conservative candidate ( since they were not fighting each other). So we compare instead this year with last year. Independents of all kinds did poorly. On the other hand there was an increase in the Tory vote across the board. It stands out as the main difference between the two years.
From a Labour point of view the opinion polls look bad. But local results quite often don't follow a national trend. We know that some features in Labour's campaign have been effective, but it is difficult to judge how far they might translate into votes. An overall no change looks quite likely. In East Marsh ward the Conservatives have apparently circulated a document which purports to show that the Council are planning to demolish and rebuild the whole ward. Hardly, in our opinion, responsible campaigning. (Further analysis suggests the offending leaflet is not from the Conservatives but is from another body, It is in any case a cause of unnecessary worry for many residents.) This accusation is unfortunately confirmed in this year's Annual Audit and Inspection Letter. Paragraph 17 reads: "The Council's understanding of the diverse needs of its communities was assessed as weak. The absence of detailed up-to date knowledge and understanding of the needs of its communities at risk of disadvantage limits progress on becoming more customer focused."
. A more subtle mistake (presumably) was made in the Conservative address: "The Conservative Party....will work tirelessly to reverse long overdue progress in key areas, ........" .Really? Yet, the story hasn't ended. There are, in fact, two issues. One is when the free passes will be reinstalled. The second is whether the Council will also renegotiate with Stagecoach the amount of subsidy given by the Council, in order to prevent the reduction of services due to be implemented on 1st June.
It is unusual for a single issue to be so important in a local election. The interesting question is whether it will increase the number voting. Labour naturally hopes that it will, and that they will vote Labour. The wards most affected are East Marsh, Freshney, South, and Sydney Sussex. Stagecoach have retaliated by putting up some fares and reducing services. We do not have the details, but it certainly sounds as though the poor old consumer is once again losing out. To cancel a benefit is never politically wise if it can be avoided. The risk of incurring a large unexpected loss is quite low, and it suggests that some of our local politicians are not in touch with how many people feel. Jane Hyldon-King is the retiring councillor. She is well liked and is active in the community, and so ought to be the favourite. But last year the Liberals won with a 77 majority, with Labour and Conservative having almost the same votes. The Conservatives have also been represented recently in Freshney. Last summer's floods put Freshney into the headlines, as did the threat to close Whitgift school, and problems around bus services. It is not likely, however, that any of these will significantly influence the election result. The rules governing expenditure limits during elections only come into force when an election is declared. Sometimes campaigning before the declaration is a way to keep within expenditure limits. But that is unlikely to be a reason here, since the maximum limit is usually well above what local parties spend (and can afford). No, the reason here is that all parties think these elections are particularly important. And apart from the elections, we read that the Council's CEO is leaving - and with only one months notice. One definition is that the job was (on behalf of the aristocracy) "to advise and direct the Mayor and Commonality" of a borough. According to wikipedia, "The original duty of the high steward seems to have been to place the dishes on the lord's table at solemn feasts."
Crime is measured in two ways. One is those recorded by the police. The other is by a survey, asking those aged 16 and above about crimes they have experienced. We also find that definitions of different kinds of crime have changed over time. So can we make any meaningful generalisations? Yes, up to a point. The crimes of burglary, and offences against vehicles have trended downwards for some ten to fifteen years. This is certainly in part because of improved ways of preventing such crimes. And possibly criminals have found more profitable fields to operate in. Perhaps the crime that worries many people is that of violence against the person. Here the record is not so good. In response to a question in Parliament by Austin Mitchell the number recorded in North East Lincs by the police is as follows:
Hardly a satisfactory situation.
This result is not altogether surprising since many of its shortcomings are easily seen, and Shoreline inherited from North East Lincs Council a department that was not one of its best. Two comments come to mind. There was a gap between what was promised when Shoreline was set up, and what has been delivered. And it cannot be assumed that outsourcing is in itself a solution. In 2004 the Independants picked up 756 votes, and in 2006 529 votes. The Lib/Dems won by 105 in 2004 and by 95 in 2006. So a lot depends on how much the Independents this year will reduce the votes of the main parties. It sounds rather complicated, and so it is. Labour, with a young but experienced candidate, have high hopes of making a gain here. It looks as though charges are due to rise by about 6% this coming financial year, though it could be more if the increase is put off until well after the election ! The following year there appears to be another increase scheduled of around 14%. However, we need more details to know precisely what the plans are. At the moment the Council makes a profit (or enjoys a surplus) of over £600,000. And they refuse point blank to invest in staff to keep the Forward groups going. They attempt to involve the communities in building pride and improvement where they live. Most are doing well but need nurturing and leading until they can stand on their own collective feet. It is to be considered by Overview and Scrutiny who will dither and dally before making a decision on this subject until it is too late. But stranger still is the lack of interest by the Telegraph. Time was when there was lively reporting of budget speeches, amendments and all, so that readers could get a feel for how their money was being spent. It's a closed shop apparently. Stalwarts like Frank Whitmarsh are sadly missed. PS. Apparently the epicentre of the earthquake was Ludford So in the budget debates Labour could only move three amendments. 23.2.08 From an opposition point of view though, the figures often show up policies they were not aware of, and show up expenditure they do not agree with. Both of these factors applied this year. Labour's strongest attack this year was on the cutting back of free bus passes to exclude journeys before 9.30 The Tory/Liberal excuse was that although they had received extra funding from the government, they could not know how much it would cost. The extra cost would come from visiting pensioners, and it is difficult to see how this will be a large amount. So the cut just looks like a mean effort to save a little money. Croft Baker, next door, is more complicated. In 2004 there were 5 candidates (3 of them independents) and the Liberals won with a majority of 125. Last year there were 4 candidates and Labour just won. With both Labour and Liberal this year well known in the area, the result is far from certainty. When there are several candidates it is particularly difficult to know how the votes will fall.
Judging from their publicity in the press, the Liberals clearly have their eyes on Freshney and East Marsh. They must also hold their existing wards, Heneage, South, Yarborough and Immingham. But Immingham, South and Freshney are traditionally Labour areas. Immingham and Freshney also have quite a strong Conservative following. Before looking at particular wards, we should consider what are the main factors that influence local results. There is plenty of room for differences of opinion, but we venture some generalisations. The national scene plays some part, and is important when party feelings are high (as at a general election), but otherwise is a secondary factor. Similarly the local political atmosphere may play its part (and did in 2003 when the Labour administration became unpopular). At the moment, perhaps regrettably, we do not detect strong feelings amongst the electorate either for or against the Tory/Liberal coalition. This leaves the personal factor. How well are local candidates known and are felt to be the best ones to represent the people in their wards? This factor may this year be the key.
It is easy to see that if the Liberals could gain three seats, they would have an overall majority. This has to be their objective. However, they are defending marginal seats as well as attacking marginals. Most of the main fights will be between Labour and Liberal. The Conservatives are, on the whole, involved in fewer marginals. We will look more closely at the main wards in the near future. 11.2.08 Each Super Output Area is analysed in a number of ways, such as the level of unemployment, the level of income, the amount of disability, and so on. They can then be put in order, 1 being the worst and 34000 + being the best area. There is a super output area in East Marsh Ward which is marked number 1; in other words it is the worst area in England and Wales for crime and anti social behaviour.
Four departments, much to their credit, came out with improved scores. So certainly the council is doing better. At the same time it has to be said that our council remains in the bottom fifth of councils inspected. They knew in advance that there was not a cat-in-hell's chance getting 3 stars this year, for the classification of the department for Children and Young People was already known. If that result had been better, a 3 star would have been probable. The point that sticks out in the Corporate Assessment report is the failure to achieve improved services for consumers. The council's customers are not yet getting much benefit. Better services will hopefully come in time. We cannot help pointing out that our Tory/LibDem council have had nearly five years after which service to their customers is still relativelyl poor.
When the Telegraph recently published the local exam. results, it was noticeable that the academies were not included. They have since failed to give the local authority other information asked for. After what was said when they were established, this must be a deliberate policy. Although the government have made it clear that the academies do not have to provide the information asked for, it seems odd that they have not done so. The result is that the academies lay themselves open to the criticism that they will give facts and figures when they are good, but not when they reflect badly on themselves. The name is calculated to cause confusion for some, as it will not be part of the Freshney ward. If a council gives absolute priority to keeping down council tax, then one way to do it is to transfer the burden elsewhere. Schools are beginning to worry that this will happen to them. And how can we find out? Well, it probably means reading the small print - a not very easy job which opposition parties have to do. So off we go. One aspect that should be emphasised is the loss of business to the area. Capita were to have opened a regional office here, and that would have meant benefits to many other than through the council. There were, of course, risks attached to the prospective contract, but the potential benefits would have been enormous. Our Tory/Lib/Dem council lacked either the guts or the vision to go ahead - or perhaps both. The discretionary fares scheme - the government have extended the scheme to enable those over 60 to travel free in any local authority buses in England. It applies from 9.30am to 11pm on weekdays and all day on weekends and bank holidays. Up until now, travel in North East Lincs has also been free for those travelling before 9.30, but this concession will be withdrawn from next April. So anyone here who wants to travel free before 9.30 will lose out.
The LGA have produced a list of 100 words that LAs should avoid when communicating with the public. LGA (Local Government Association) and LAs (Local Authorities) are not on the list. A random sample from the list is: bottom-up, citizen empowerment, conditionality, joined up, multi-agency, scoping, subsidiary, sustainable, transformational, vision. We see what they're getting at. We plead guilty when it comes to using jargon and many such words as those above. The government has suggested a number of strategies. North East Lincs will soon have to decide what they will do. This is something we shall watch closely, and return to. We already know that the North East Lincs IT set up was very weak. It is certainly being improved, but to obtain value it would have to be integrated with changed management. We do not have sufficient faith in our present management to think that it will happen without other outside help. We have no idea what is being planned as an alternative to Capita, but on the basis of rather limited knowledge, it looks as though the project with Capita was an opportunity missed.
Not that nothing is being done. Two schools at least have shown an interest, Wintringham and Lindsey, and Councillors attended. Our impression, though, is that not enough was done in preparation or in promoting special events. Very unfortunate, especially as politics is not considered important by the present generation of young people. It's been a poor turn out from schools and Councillors. Only four out of forty two managed to volunteer to visit schools and talk to the young people, who had no knowledge of the Children and Young People's Plan. Neither did they know for the most part who their MP is or who their Ward Councillors are. Obviously a need for an inquest here. Although it may sometimes not seem so, our roads in this area are not relatively over congested. However, recent estimates suggest that car ownership in North East Lincs will go up by about 12 or 13 thousand in the next 20 years. Ooch!!
It's precisely what we feared might happen with academies. Politically Grimsby is unlikely to get special attention. The only unusual fact about us is that it is one of the few constituencies whose boundaries remain the same. Even though voters are fickle, and polls not as reliable for future voting as they once were, Austin seems safe enough in Grimsby. But what about Cleethorpes? Last time Shona had a majority of 2642. Not very large, but more than 5% of the votes cast - and less than 5% used to be the rough definition of a marginal seat. But in 2005 there was a UKIP candidate who took 2016 votes. If UKIP don't stand this time, and if the Lib/Dem voters are squeezed, it might still be a close thing. However, given the present opinion polls, and the fact that Shona has kept in close touch with her supporters, Labour should hold Cleethorpes. The cost is high. It is but one example of how we, as a community, lose out through the thoughtless acts of a minority. Yet it must be the work of more than one or two obsessives. Arson is quite widespread (South ward and West Marsh wards are the worst, but some others are not much better). There has to be a culture change, so that arson is never thought of as clever or adventurous, but always as stupid, selfish, dangerous, and ridiculous. Easier said than done.
The second and more important reason is that N E lincs has a poor reputation. That matters. It may well be a factor for companies who might invest here. If the project with Capita goes ahead as planned, then the reputation will change, and money to promote the Council could be money well spent. Given that alternative names are mostly long and clumsy, it's probably best to stay as we are and use the alleged cost of £100.000 for a better use - say gully and drain cleaning! There has been much discussion about change of name. That is trivia compared to taking on a "Transformation Partner". We set out the background some months ago. See here. The appointment of Capita will be agreed by the Council on Monday (10/9/07). It follows a long period of negotiations. The agreement with Capita is detailed and complicated. But its aim is clear. It is to raise the efficiency and service quality of the Council from nearly the bottom to the top of all English councils. It is an investment, which doesn't come cheap. But if successful it will more than pay for itself. The agreement with Capita will be for a long period, at least ten years. The agreement will no doubt get lots of publicity, but in any case we will be adding our further views about it shortly.
A report in the Telegraph may have inadvertently given the impression that this was not so. A lump sum figure of the amount not collected was given. In itself this was not very meaningful. The proportion of council tax collected by other similar authorities has been about 96.5%. North East Lincs has been collecting nearly 1% more, which, considering the nature of our area, seems very good. One up for the, sometimes criticised, Finance department. He was clear that the decision to change the service had little or nothing to do with losing funding from the Supporting People programme and that this was deliberately confusing. Whether he is right or wrong his statement was well received by the audience and should surely have been reported. What he had to say was not refuted and we understand people left the meeting far from happy, vowing that the issue would not be allowed to die. Clearly there is still plenty of fight left in the older generation - they should be listened to.
Thus many, who would like to give evidence, will not be in a position to clarify or elaborate any points that may not be fully understood, or to comment on, or disagree with, what they have heard other witnesses say. This would not show much respect for the views of electors who may have been victims of the flooding.
The enquiry should be brought forward, not put back. There is still time to sort it out. The details will be important.
There is a portfolio cabinet member for Adult Social Care. The Council is indeed to consider the problem, but the issues has not been given to the Scrutiny Panel concerned with Older People, but instead to the Regeneration and Housing Scrutiny Panel. It is symbolic of how the Tory/LibDem Council think of it. An exactly similar problem arose with the organisation of Children's Centres. In order to avoid extra expenditure, a centralised system is being implemented that reduces the direct contact between a particular social worker and parent. To help both older people and parents personal knowledge and contact is essential. And while we're on the subject of vulnerable people, are our local flood victims getting the help from the Council that they need and deserve? The Council have policies and responsibilities for all housing in its area, even though the management of its former housing stock has been handed to Shoreline. The Council department of Adult Social Services deals with the welfare of older people. Where is the cooperation between the Council and Shoreline? One of the facts which came out, and which had obviously not been appreciated before, was the many services involved, most of which were not under the control of the local authority. It is a good illustration of the need for our council to develop a leadership and coordinating role in our area. For where else can people look when they really need help and support? Although governments now expect councils to be taking on such a role, it is not one with which councilors feel comfortable. It too easily leads to responsibility without power - exactly what has arisen with our current floods. There is always someone worse off. Floods in China have caused over 400 dead, and about three million people displaced. And parts of Texas had 17 inches over a weekend. It is therefore interesting to find that as the Oasis Trust prepares to take over the control of their new academies, they have appointed their own support workers in Nunsthorpe. Global warming in our latitude is forecast to lead to higher and heavier rainfall. It has also been said that we would get wetter winters and dryer, warmer summers. Well? We didn't know that "Toll Bar" was a village. It is on what used to be the Great North Road, so one can see the connection. Roughly a third of this area could be flooded, though the danger comes more from the sea. It is already taken into account in the local building regulations, which require the ground floors of new housing to be (say three feet) above ground level. The risk of flooding on this scale is low, but, given what has happened, the Council will be wise to investigate the dangers in more detail.
The meteorological office website, incidentally, can be very useful in showing possible rain due in the near future. Click here to see. 27.6.07 The Telegraph recently featured a "Carer" who had had such an invitation. In fact the very first group to be invited in 1997 was a group of carers. They must also have been one of the last. These gatherings typically lasted a couple of hours, hosted perhaps by Cherie Blair, with Tony coming in at some point to give a short welcoming speech. A nice, though small, way of keeping in touch with people. oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
We have no way of knowing how many were really essential, though anecdotal reports suggest many were not. 29.5.07 The strangest turmoil was in education. In the 2002 CPA inspection Education got a 3, the best of all departments. In October 2004 there was a full inspection of the LEA, and the result was 5 out of 7 - 7 being the lowest. (The only two areas, incidentally, where the Council came out smelling of roses was in "Support for Early Years education" and in "Support for school governors"). Intervention might have been avoided had the department's self assessment not been too high. As it was there has been a three year strategic management contract, which is due to finish next year. We cannot resist commenting on one piece in the JAR. They say that "opportunities for learners to access courses run by other providers to broaden their curriculum choice are limited. This particularly impacts on those 17 and 18 old learners who are in small sixth-forms." This issue is being addressed, they write, "by already closing one sixth form and agreeing the closure of another." They do not seem to know that the authority has also agreed to three new sixth forms being opened !! 21.5.07 Places on Council bodies are distributed according to the number in each party group - the two Independents counting as a party group for this purpose. A dispute can arise if one party disagrees with the distribution between the bodies. The Labour Group did complain as they felt they had less than their due places on two bodies,and some adjustments were made in response to their complaint. We also understand that this election has produced an unusually large number of complaints to the Returning Officer, caused by attacks by one candidate on another. We have yet to hear details, apart from our own that is. But we do expect to hear more about them in the near future. 10.5.07 Next year there will be elections in 12 of the 15 wards (none in the three two member wards). In 2009 there will be no local elections in this authority. 4.5.07 Both the LibDems and the Tories may find this convenient, both with the hope that they will win more seats next year. The LibDems would find it easier than running a minority administration, and the Tories could retain some responsible posts. It would not, in our opinion, work out well, as Labour have probably reached the lowest point of their unpopularity - but then we would think that wouldn't we? 30.4.07 A candidate's personality and some local issues rightly play a part. If only we could have a real debate! But there is little scope for this during a local election. We have discussions in the Labour Party , but time, space and money mean that most campaign literature is simplistic and short. In an ideal world folk interested in politics would join a Party, and take part in creating local policies. Do I see three porcine animals flying across the sky? We pointed this out in a comment on 13.4.07 (see below) Worse still, the Council owned properties had nothing to offer. Jane Hyldon-King and Muriel Barker would not accept this situation, and pressed for provision as a start in the newly refurbished Discovery Centre. At first it was a case of "we'll see what we can do". Then finally we learned that the Discovery Centre will be the first of our public buildings to cater for these mothers. Now for the rest -- libraries, parks and so on. How can the Council ask commercial properties to make these provisions if they are not prepared to? 21.4.07 It suggests that putting up candidates against each other was not just cosmetic; also that there have been disagreements between the two parties that are now coming into the open. So what happens after the election? Assuming that no party gains an overall majority, and that is most unlikely, there will again be a "hung" council.That would mean either some form of coalition, or rule by a minority party. If a coalition, then whom between. An interesting speculation. The worst cases are when there are many boarded up houses near each other. We know from elsewhere that this problem can be solved, but it needs effort and money. Some effort is being put in, but not enough. Meanwhile, rent income is lost, and waiting lists persist. Well, firstly, a council can't go bankrupt". But in case that should be thought to be playing with words, it should be made clear that North East Lincs was never in a position when it could not meet its obligations or somehow did not have enough funds to meet its liabilities. What was true was that the book-keeping got into a mess, and was not sorted out for a year or two - the officers concerned paid the price. Meanwhile the government made extra funds available in case of need. And the early panic, which was the occasion for some rather wild cuts, soon turned into financial surplus - all, of course, planned in advance (after the event). 13.4.07 We therefore deplore the cheap trick of the Liberals in using the prestige of the Mayor for party political purposes. A Liberal election leaflet includes a photograph of the Mayor in the council chamber with a group of Liberal councillors. It was wrong to use the Mayoral office for party political purposes. 11.4.07 This means it is almost impossible for candidates to meet more than a tiny proportion of electors. There are now 8 wards in Grimsby. At one time there were as many as 22. So, spare a thought for the poor old candidates, whom many electors allege they "never see". 9.4.07 Names and details are on the NEL council website. 6.4.07 These are certainly true for some, but look rather high for an average. The 7.2 hours a week with constituents must include some canvassing as well as surgeries and dealing with quereies or complaints. Their average age is given as 58. 3.4.07 Not so long ago the political parties recommended their candidates to put in say three nomination papers, as little mistakes could prove fatal. Nowadays the ERO (Electoral Registration Officer) is less pedantic, points out errors, and allows papers to be corrected. If someone fails to get nominated it is usually because they got the dates muddled, and just didn't put their papers in on time. Note that "papers" is plural, because there are at least four documents needed - and of course more later on when expenses have to be declared. Still, the first hurdle is almost cleared. 31.3.07 Four years in control of the council by the Tory/LibDem coalition has led to differences between them and squabbling between their leaders. This year they will have candidates opposing each other in several wards. Both parties will be aiming to become the leading party on the council. Labour, meanwhile, are looking forwards to regaining ground in their traditional strongholds. Although the Labour Party nationally are doing less well in the polls, four years in opposition locally have enabled them to regroup, and to create the basis for a comeback.
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