What does Climate Change mean for this area ?

Global warming, or climate change, has been taking place for some time. The scientific case for it is convincing and consistent. It is a long term trend. Thus there is great variability in our weather, so it is not possible to identify particular weather events with climate change.

The extent of climate change can be limited or even reversed by people in the world. We anticipate, however, that the proportion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will continue to increase for many years. The latest research suggests that the atmosphere is more sensitive to greenhouse gasses that has been peviously thought. So the planet is probably heating up faster than we have up to now allowed for.

Long term effects on our weather

To see the range of predictions made on the defra website click here. In general, as we have indicated before, we are likely to have warmer and drier summers, and wetter and warmer winters. Relatively extreme weather conditions may become more common.

This country will probably not suffer as serious weather consequences as many other counties. "The middle range of Europe - from Ireland through much of Britain, and across towards the Czech Republic - will be the most habitable part of Europe 20 to 30 years from now. We should anticipate that more people will migrate into these regions." (The European Environment Agency ). Unexpected events could happen, such as a change in the gulf stream, but at present this seems unlikely.

What about the rise in sea level?

This is potentially very serious for this area. Over 400,00 people along the Humber estuary, and nearly a third of people in Grimsby and Cleethorpes live on a flood plain, albeit with at present a very low risk of flooding.

The sea level worldwide has been rising for a long time by a very small amount each year (caused by thermal expansion of the oceans). The rise has accelerated in recent years, but is still tiny. A more significant rise could occur through the melting of ice in Greenland and the Antarctic. This is happening, but at an uncertain rate. Estimates of the rise of the sea level by the end of the century vary from about half a metre to about two metres.

The Environmental Agency locally have to take the sea level into account when planning sea defences. However, if the level rose by around a metre, and the coast was hit by a storm, serious flooding would almost certainly occur. If the sea level rose by much more than a metre then a significant area of Grimsby and Cleethorpes would in effect become uninhabitable.

And we must also take account of the indirect effects of climate change

For a world picture see here

An American study (CSIS) wrote in their conclusions that "the United States can expect that climate change will exacerbate already existing north-south tensions, drastically increase global migration both inside and between nations, spur more serious public health problems, heighten interstate tension and possibly conflict over resources, challenge the institutions of global governance, cause potentially destabilizing domestic political and social repercussions, and stir unpredictable shifts in the global balance of power..."

Acidification of the oceans could have serious implications for the fishing industry.

And if all that isn't enough, there will be even more millions suffering malnutrition, or actually dying of hunger.

These consequences of climate change are possibilities, not forecasts, but increasingly seem probable.

See also something of what the Council is doing - on the council affairs page.