The YouGov poll figures in the accompanying table certainly tell a story. Even though that for Labour is probably exaggerated and that for the Liberals is too low, the trend is clear. We have recently had two Liberals voting against the coalition. It is still much to early to draw any definite conclusions, but still.....

The coalition now looks set, and it will be a question of sticking together in a potentially very unfriendly (for them ) climate. If their economic gamble works, the Conservatives would get most of the credit, and the Liberals might survive on their coat tails. If, as seems much more likely, the economy goes seriously down, both parties will lose, but the Liberals could be obliterated.

For Labour the first thing is to get a new leader. David Miliband is presently the most favoured, but this may well change. The risk for Labour will be that a determination not to split may mean that, apart from opposing the Tories, clear cut policies may be slow to develop.