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The Tories have established their lead in the polls. Though there are small variations between polls, and between months, the trend is clear.

For the time being, Cameron can concentrate on attacking Labour, and in due course provide some coherent policies. All he has to worry about are potential divisions within his own Party.

Politics is a volatile profession, but with the economy in trouble, and likely to get worse, he can sit back and hope to build on Labour's unpopularity.


 
The following are polls by YouGov, nearly all taken in the second half of each month. They can,of course, give only an approximate picture of variations during the last year and a half.  
 
 
Month Tory% Lab % Lib/Dem%
Jan
38
31
18
Feb
37
32
17
March
38
32
16
April
37
32
18
May
39
33
15
June
37
35
14
July
33
40
15
Aug
33
41
14
Sept
33
39
16
Oct
41
38
11
Nov
43
32
16
Dec
43
31
16
Jan
41
33
16
Feb
40
34
16
March
43
29
17
April
44
28
17
May
47
23
18
June
46
28
15
 
   
 

 

The focus now is on Labour's troubles. It will be very difficult to reverse this, though it is not impossible.

New policy initiatives will in our opinion not be enough to do the trick. What is needed is a clear and distinctive change of direction. There are various possibilities, but it is the principle of change, rather than individual policies, that is important.

Many of Labour's troubles are of international origin, and to an extent people recognise this. Yet the public still think that they can be sorted out by the government.

The omens for the government are thus not good.